You get a real feel for different teams’ strengths and weaknesses throughout the long, grueling regular season, but the draw is everything once March Madness arrives.
Let’s dive into this week’s edition of 10 Trends and some make-or-break X-Factors for tournament teams. Here’s the teams you do (or don’t) want to see.
- Inside a concerning trend for Alabama
Alabama wants to take 3s and limit 3s. That checks out from a math perspective. But the interior defense has not been a real strength for the Tide. Numerous SEC big men have had a field day against their frontline.
Auburn’s Johni Broome: 34 points, eight rebounds
Florida’s Alex Condon: 27 points, 10 rebounds
Mississippi State’s KeShawn Murphy: 18 points, 11 rebounds
Kentucky’s Amari Williams: 17 points, 11 rebounds, six assists
Arkansas’ Zvonimir Ivisic: 27 points, seven rebounds
Missouri’s Mark Mitchell: 31 points, three rebounds, three assists
Purdue’s Trey Kaufman-Renn: 26 points, eight rebounds
Oregon’s Nate Bittle: 19 points, nine rebounds
Ole Miss’ Malik Dia: 23 points, 19 rebounds
Selection Sunday lookahead: Careful what you wish for, but it’s not unrealistic for Alabama to potentially see a No. 7 seed Marquette in the second round. That would be just fine for the Crimson Tide. Marquette has very little beef on the interior. Conversely, a team like Memphis — which has ramped up the low-post touches for Dain Dainja — could be a chore.
- Arkansas turning lead guards’ water off
Boogie Fland’s season-ending thumb injury changed John Calipari’s rotation drastically. The Razorbacks now play just seven guys. All of them are 6-foot-4 or taller.
In the last month or so, Arkansas has turned its season around with improved perimeter defense. There are small lead guards littered all across the SEC. Very few are having much success against this Arkansas team that is big at the point of attack with DJ Wagner and Johnell Davis, physical on the wing with Billy Richmond and Adou Thiero potentially looming and has multiple shot-blockers on the back end, — namely Trevon Brazile, Jonas Aidoo and Zvonimir Ivisic. These Hawgs are a tough matchup for small guards and there’s proof in the pudding.
If Arkansas makes the NCAA Tournament, its defense on lead guards will be a big reason why.
Alabama’s Mark Sears: 11 points on 5-12 shooting in 34 minutes.
LSU’s Jordan Sears: two points on 1-5 shooting in 27 minutes.
Auburn’s Tahaad Pettiford: four points on 1-4 shooting in 17 minutes.
Missouri’s Anthony Robinson: three points on 0-2 shooting in 20 minutes.
Texas’ Jordan Pope: five points on 2-7 shooting in 35 minutes
South Carolina’s Jacobi Wright: zero points in 33 minutes
Vanderbilt’s Jason Edwards: two points on 0-12 shooting
Mississippi State’s Josh Hubbard: 17 points on 4-16 shooting
Selection Sunday lookahead: Hypothetically, if a 10-seeded Arkansas got paired with a 2-seed Michigan State that leans heavily on smaller guards like Tre Holloman, Jeremy Fears Jr., Jaden Akins and Jase Richardson, Arkansas has the personnel — and a proof of concept — to match up quite well.
- Purdue’s struggles against big wings continue
Purdue might be really happy if its initial Selection Sunday draw doesn’t feature a matchup against a big-time wing. That archetype has given the Boilermakers fits multiple times throughout conference play because Purdue doesn’t have the perfect answer. The Boilermakers’ go-to lineup is basically three small guards next to Trey Kaufman-Renn and Caleb Furst. That forces some awkward mismatches with a 6-foot-6 wing.
Purdue has the flexibility to pivot to Cam Heide or Myles Colvin, who are more than serviceable defensively (Colvin, especially, has shown moments of terrific defense). However, both guys aren’t making 3s at a high clip, so Matt Painter’s hands are a bit tied.
Illinois’ Will Riley: 22 points, four assists
Wisconsin’s John Tonje: 32 points
Michigan State’s Frankie Fidler: 11 points in 16 minutes (second-most points he’s scored since Jan. 15)
Indiana’s Mackenzie Mgbako: 25 points
Iowa’s Josh Dix: 27 points
Ohio State’s Micah Parrish: 22 points
Michigan’s Roddy Gayle: 14 points (most points he’s scored since Jan. 12)
Selection Sunday lookahead: Purdue is on that No. 4-seed line. Pairing in the same quadrant with a team like Arizona — who has talented, physical wings like KJ Lewis or Carter Bryant — would not be ideal.
- Texas A&M losing the battle against dynamic shooters
The Aggies have built a top-10 defense, but shooters have blazed the nets against them lately. Buzz Williams’ club can overwhelm opponents with its physicality and size. Scoring at the rim against the Aggies is a chore, and they swarm to the ball and force turnovers at a 20% clip. That ranks just a hair outside the top-40 nationally.
But Texas A&M cedes plenty of catch-and-shoot 3s. Only two high-major defenses allow more unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s, which is the highest-value 3-pointer to take. If you can get out, run and move the ball with a purpose against the swarming defense, there are open 3-pointers to be found. Lately, Texas A&M has had major issues containing the top shooter on the scouting report.
Mississippi State’s Claudell Harris: 4-8 from downtown
Tennessee’s Chaz Lanier: 8-13 from downtown
Vanderbilt’s Tyler Nickel: 7-10 from downtown
Florida’s Will Richard and Alijah Martin: 10-16 from downtown combined.
Auburn’s Tahaad Pettiford and Chad Baker-Mazara: 9-17 from downtown combined.
Selection Sunday lookahead: Texas A&M is in an awkward spot. It could easily be in that 2-to-4-seed range. Regardless, any quadrant with Louisville would be a problem. Reyne Smith is one of the top shooters in America. He could have a field day if the Aggies weren’t careful.
- Same ole, same ole with Baylor
We’ve talked about it all year long, but elite shooters get way too comfortable against this Baylor defense. Scott Drew and his staff know its a problem, but it keeps popping up game after game.
It’s the same story, different day.
Houston’s LJ Cryer: 6-9 from downtown
Cincinnati’s Jizzle James: 3-8 from downtown
Colorado’s Andrej Jakimovski: 5-9 from downtown
Texas Tech’s Chance McMillian: 5-11 from downtown
Tennessee’s Chaz Lanier: 7-10 from downtown.
Iowa State’s Milan Momcilovic: 4-7 from downtown
TCU’s Brendan Wenzel: 4-8 from downtown
UConn’s Solo Ball: 3-6 from downtown
Gonzaga’s Khalif Battle: 4-8 from downtown
St. John’s Aaron Scott: 5-6 from downtown
Selection Sunday lookahead: Baylor is on thin ice for an at-large bid, but still has hopes of advancing thanks to its high-end talent. Avoiding a date with a 6-seed like Missouri would be ideal. Caleb Grill is the head of the snake, but Mizzou can heat it up from downtown in a hurry against a disconnected defense.
- West Virginia’s outstanding process
West Virginia is one of the best defenses in the country at limiting spot-up 3s. Sencire Harris is a terrific on-ball defender, and Darian DeVries’ gameplan to play two-on-two and stay home on shooters forces teams to beat West Virginia either in the post or with off-the-dribble, contested jumpers.
There’s a real sample size of West Virginia just suffocating the top sniper on the scouting report and limiting their attempts.
BYU’s Richie Saunders: two attempts
Texas Tech’s Kerwin Walton: one attempt
Utah’s Gabe Madsen: five attempts (averages 9.3 attempts per game).
Houston’s LJ Cryer: four attempts
Arizona State’s Adam Miller: four attempts
Selection Sunday lookahead: West Virginia could very well see Creighton in the first round. I don’t love that matchup for the Mountaineers. Ryan Kalkbrenner could give West Virginia’s undersized frontcourt some serious problems, and Steven Ashworth is one of the top off-the-dribble snipers in the country. He hits the shots that West Virginia tries to coax.
- Top guy on the scouting report against Maryland
I’m not entirely sure what to make of it because Maryland’s defense has some real bite, but the No. 1 guy on the scouting report keeps getting their numbers against the Terps in the last month or so.
Northwestern’s Nick Martinelli: 28 points
Michigan’s Danny Wolf: 20 points on 9-13 shooting with eight rebounds and four assists.
Penn State’s Ace Baldwin: 18 points
Michigan State’s Jase Richardson: 15 points
USC’s Wesley Yates: 21 points
Nebraska’s Brice Williams: 20 points
Rutgers’ Dylan Harper: 20 points
Ohio State’s Bruce Thornton: 31 points
Wisconsin’s John Tonje: 23 points
Selection Sunday lookahead: If that trend continues into March, that can be a bit scary if that alpha is feeling good about themselves in a nip-and-tuck game down the stretch. For example, Marquette is a completely different team when Kam Jones is on. Maryland knows that all too well from the non-conference tilt when Jones erupted for 28 points. A heliocentric team would be one I’d want to avoid if I was Maryland. Ole Miss or BYU would not be easy matchups, but they’re more of an “everybody eats” crew.